Tutorial: Visualising statistical uncertainty using model-based graphs

logistic regression
mixed-effects models
multiple regression
Bayesian statistics

Jan Vanhove


June 29, 2020

I wrote a tutorial about visualising the statistical uncertainty in statistical models for a conference that took place a couple of months ago, and I’ve just realised that I’ve never advertised this tutorial in this blog. You can find the tutorial here: Visualising statistical uncertainty using model-based graphs.


  1. Why plot models, and why visualise uncertainty?
  2. The principle: An example with simple linear regression
    • Step 1: Fit the model
    • Step 2: Compute the conditional means and confidence intervals
    • Step 3: Plot!
  3. Predictions about individual cases vs. conditional means
  4. More examples
    • Several continuous predictors
    • Dealing with categorical predictors
    • t-tests are models, too
    • Dealing with interactions
    • Ordinary logistic regression
    • Mixed-effects models
    • Logistic mixed effects models
  5. Caveats
    • Other things may not be equal
    • Your model may be misspecified
    • Other models may yield different pictures