Tutorial: Visualising statistical uncertainty using model-based graphs

I wrote a tutorial about visualising the statistical uncertainty in statistical models for a conference that took place a couple of months ago, and I’ve just realised that I’ve never advertised this tutorial in this blog. You can find the tutorial here: Visualising statistical uncertainty using model-based graphs.

Contents:

1. Why plot models, and why visualise uncertainty?
2. The principle: An example with simple linear regression
   • Step 1: Fit the model
   • Step 2: Compute the conditional means and confidence intervals
   • Step 3: Plot!
3. Predictions about individual cases vs. conditional means
4. More examples
   • Several continuous predictors
   • Dealing with categorical predictors
   • t-tests are models, too
   • Dealing with interactions
   • Ordinary logistic regression
   • Mixed-effects models
   • Logistic mixed effects models
5. Caveats
   • Other things may not be equal
   • Your model may be misspecified
   • Other models may yield different pictures